Commercial Lending, Terms, Supply,Demand

Q4 2009 Outcomes and 2010 Predictions

Posted on Thursday, February 25, 2010

Default rates on office, retail, hotel, and industrial loans are up to 3.8% as of Q4 2009 verses 1.6% in Q4 2008.

Real Capital Analytics reports:

Defaults on multifamily mortgages soared even higher – a staggering 250% jumping from 1.8% to 4.4%

There are 8,942 commercial properties in the United States classified as “distressed,” representing a combined volume of $183 billion. And those figures are expected to go higher still.

Projects defaults on office, retail, hotel, and industrial properties will rise from 2009’s 3.8% to 5.1% by Q4 2010.

Multifamily defaults will peak earlier at 5.3% by Q4 2010.

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