Statistical Indicators

Shadow Inventory May Deplete Quicker In Hardest Hit States

Posted on Monday, April 4, 2011

A recent report by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reveals interesting information regarding the shadow inventory of the hardest hit states.
It is pretty well known that Arizona, Nevada, California, and Florida have been most affected by the foreclosure crisis. Together the four states make up 42 percent of the foreclosure volume in the United States.
But the situation is improving somewhat. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that in the last quarter of 2010, 90-plus day delinquencies fell in these four hard-hit states. At the same time, total non-current loans have dropped 38 percent nationally.
Florida has the largest shadow inventory, with more than 441,000 properties.
“The issue in Florida largely stems from inflated foreclosure inventory, which takes a very long time to clear,” said the report.
The average number of days loans are delinquent in Florida is 638 days. The report also notes that California and Florida have seen the length of their foreclosure processes rise more than 150 percent since 2008.
But Arizona and Nevada, while still ranking in the top 25 states with the largest shadow inventory, are “fairing much better in terms of the shadow inventory.”
“This is largely due to their shadow inventory moving somewhat faster through the pipe lines and comprising large share of existing sales,” the report continued.
Distressed sales make up 55 percent of existing sales in Arizona and nearly 70 percent in Nevada. The report calculates the number of months it would take each state to clear its shadow inventory, by dividing the shadow inventory by the monthly number of distressed sales.
Using this formula, NAR found it would take 51 months to clear the shadow inventory in New Jersey, where only about 20 percent of existing home sales are distressed sales.
By contrast, Nevada’s distressed sales make up 70 percent of existing home sales, and by NAR’s calculations, the states shadow inventory could be cleared in as little as 7 months.
NAR calculated it would take 21 to 30 months to clear the shadow inventory in several states, including Florida, Louisiana, Hawaii, and Washington.
Like Nevada, Arizona fell into the 7-10 month range.
The majority of the states fell within the 11 to 20 month range, including California and Texas.
By: Joy Leopold DS NEWS

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