Statistical Indicators

Negative Equity

Posted on Thursday, February 25, 2010

First American CoreLogic numebrs are indicating 11.3 million plus homes (24% of all homes with mortgages) in negative equity by year end 2009 with another 2.3 million approaching (only 5% equity). This adds up to about $801 billion underwater and theoretically at risk.

3Q 2009 the number was 10.7 million (23% of homes with mortgages)

The total here is 29% of all homes with mortgages.

These underwater homes are still concentrated in 5 five states:

Nevada 70% of all homes with mortgages

Arizone 51%

Florida 48%

Michigan 39%

California 35%

Studeies we've discussed before show that when negative equity exceeds 25% or $70,000 residential owners start acting like investors in terms of walking away. Compare that to the reality that borrowers 25% or more underwater are now sitting on over $660 billion (82% of all negative equity). Average equity for an underwater borrower in Q4 was -$70,700. And -$69,700 in Q3 2009.

The good news is 23 million (49%)still have at least 25% equity. And 12 million have at least 50% equity.

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