Statistical Indicators

The Big Picture Outcome for 2009

Posted on Saturday, January 23, 2010

In the big picture, 2009 can be credited with;

Wrapping up a total 33% average home price decline for the US since the bubble burst.

Prices bottoming in June '09 and inching up so far each month since.

The beginning of a borader economic recovery.

BUT

Foreclosurses have not slowed.

November '09 mortgage applicationd dipped to their lowest level since '99.

Builder confidence was down two months in a row at the end of '09 and new starts dropped 4% from Nov to Dec '09.

At the end of the year the nation was still struggling with unemployment, negative equity and the usual burdens (deficit, FNMA, etc). Some fear sales and/or prices will dip again. The primary reasons are;

FNMA and Freddie pruchases wrap up in March.

The home buyer tax credit ends in April

Thougher FHA standards laungh in the spring and summer

And mortgage rates appear to be on the rise.

All, told, these government interventions have been credited with increase home prices by as much as 5% during '09.

In housing's favor is the fact that home prices are now 3% under the long term Case Shiller average and in line with rental rates, income and replacement cost.


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