Statistical Indicators

Case Shiller Released Jan 2011

Posted on Thursday, January 27, 2011

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
-
& FiServ
U.S. Home Prices Keep Weakening as Nine Cities Reach New Lows
According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
New York, January 25, 2011 – Data through November 2010, released today by Standard & Poor’s for
its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show a deceleration
in the annual growth rates in 17 of the 20 MSAs and the 10- and 20-City Composites compared to what
was reported for October 2010. The 10-City Composite was down 0.4% and the 20-City Composite fell
1.6% from their November 2009 levels. Home prices fell in 19 of 20 MSAs and both Composites in
November from their October levels. In November, only four MSAs – Los Angeles, San Diego, San
Francisco and Washington DC – showed year-over-year gains. The Composite indices remain above
their spring 2009 lows; however, nine markets – Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami,
Portland (OR), Seattle and Tampa – hit their lowest levels since home prices peaked in 2006 and 2007,
meaning that average home prices in those markets have fallen even further than the lows set in the
spring of 2009.In November 2010, the 10-City and 20-City Composites recorded annual returns of -0.4% and -1.6%,
respectively. November was the sixth consecutive month where the annual growth rates moderated from
1 Case-Shiller? and Case-Shiller Indexes? are registered trademarks of Fiserv, Inc.
their prior month’s pace. Since May 2010, the housing market has experienced an unambiguous
deceleration in home price returns. The 10-City Composite has reentered negative territory with a -0.4%
annual growth rate in November, versus the +5.4% reported six months prior in May, and the 20-City
Composite was down 1.6% in November versus its +4.6% May print.
“With these numbers more analysts will be calling for a double-dip in home prices. Let’s take a moment
to define a double-dip as seeing the 10- and 20-City Composites set new post-peak lows. The series are
now only 4.8% and 3.3% above their April 2009 lows, suggesting that a double-dip could be confirmed
before Spring. Certainly nine cities setting new lows, and with the only positive news concentrated in
southern California and Washington DC, the data point to weakness in home prices,” says David M.
Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor's. “With an annual growth rate of +3.5%
in November, Washington DC was the strongest market, but still well below the +7.7% annual rate of
growth seen in May 2010. The only city with a gain in November was San Diego, up a scant 0.1%. While
San Diego, Los Angeles and San Francisco are still ahead from November 2009, their annual rates are
shrinking in recent months.
“Looking at the monthly statistics, 19 of 20 MSAs and both Composites were down in November over
October. Fourteen MSAs and both composites have posted at least four consecutive months of decline
with November’s report. Thirteen of the MSAs and the 20-City Composite fell by 1.0% or more in
November. While not always consecutive months, 13 of the MSAs and both composites have posted at
least seven months of decline since the beginning of 2010. These markets saw home prices fall more than
half the months reported in 2010 so far.”
Source: Standard & Poor's and Fiserv
The chart above shows the index levels for the 10-City and 20-City Composite Indices. As of November
2010, average home prices across the United States are back to the levels where they were in latter half
of 2003. Measured from June/July 2006 through November 2010, the peak-to-current decline for both the
10-City Composite and 20-City Composite is -30.3%. The improvements from their April 2009 trough
are +4.8% and +3.3%, respectively.
The 10 City Composite was down 0.8% and the 20-City Composite fell by 1.0% in November. Nineteen
of 20 of the metro areas also declined in November; San Diego was up just 0.1%. Thirteen of the MSAs
were down by 1.0% or more in November, with Detroit posting the largest decline of 2.7%.
As of November 2010, Las Vegas is down 57.2% from its peak in August 2006; Phoenix is 53.9% down
from its peak on June 2006 and Miami is 48.8% down from its peak on December 2006.
The table below summarizes the results for November 2010. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
are revised for the 24 prior months, based on the receipt of additional source data. More than 23 years of
history for these data series is available, and can be accessed in full by going to
Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices have published, and the markets
have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For
analytical purposes, Standard & Poor’s does publish a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the
headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets
that are tracked.


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